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Tuesday, 30 June 2015

Where To Invest For 2-3 Years? For US Or UK

In his private consulting practice in recent years have increasingly faced with the question of where to invest optimally for a period of 2-3 years? Indeed, not all are ready for long-term investments for a period exceeding 10 years. And now, in the period of the nervous economic situation in the world, the issue of short-medium-term investment could not be relevant. So what?

Only prescription is not, so I expounded below - only "one version of the truth." So here's what we have today. It is the unstable situation in Europe, associated with the debt crisis, especially in Greece. Despite the approval of the next tranche of aid, this is not the end, but rather a postponement of solving the problem on a slightly longer term. Aside from Greece, other European countries are also not all right, what proof - the downgrade of some countries international rating agencies. However, they, too, can be understood - they must somehow rehabilitate his ruffled mortgage crisis in the US reputation when they gave AAA rating mortgage securities of dubious quality. For what it may lead:

The euro as the currency of today seems to me a pretty unstable, so invest now in euros - it seems a little risky. The only acceptable option for me Euro-investment - an investment in a rental property, and only in Germany, which, in my opinion, is the most reliable of the European countries. Investing in rental properties can be in the form of real buying apartments / hotels / apartment houses with a guaranteed lease (leaseback) and, preferably, with a guaranteed repurchase (buyback), and investing in real estate closed-end funds that invest in a rental property in Germany (REIT). All other types of investment in the euro seem to me quite risky: deposits in euro at the weakness of the euro can bring a real loss. The bonds of the euro-zone during the debt crisis - even Bole dubious investment. Shares of European companies, I believe that today have a low potential for growth, as European countries are part of austerity, and we can hardly expect rapid growth.

Where To Invest For 2-3 Years? For US Or UK
Where To Invest For 2-3 Years? For US Or UK


With regard to investments in shares, as such, for a period of 2-3 years, I do not see them as the best tool for investment. The world is in crisis, and to talk about the dynamic economic development is not necessary.

Bonds, by contrast, seems to me an interesting tool (not European). First of all, perhaps, I would recommend corporate bonds of US companies, because their rate of return is a more or less decent level compared to Treasury securities with a minimum rate of return (as befits the most reliable tool). They can go into and through funds (mutual funds, ETF), or directly through a brokerage account. Bonds should choose the largest companies that Bole or less regularly pay dividends. After all, it is - a sign of the lack of liquidity crisis.

Gold - Today most controversial asset for investment. In recent weeks, the price of gold has risen strongly. On the other hand, if the saturation of the economy with money the practice continues, inflation can not be avoided, and, therefore, investors will flee again to look for gold hedge against inflation. Also, if the instability in the European economy and unnecessarily slow recovery of the US economy, investors may also draw their attention to gold as a safe haven during a storm. Today, I would recommend to go into gold either through structured notes with 100% capital protection on the growth of gold, either in the form of coins or impersonal metallschetov. Another thing I think investing in gold does not have to start in the near future, I believe the price of gold may be slightly adjusted. Therefore, in respect of gold I would recommend to keep abreast and come into the asset when prices for the metal.

Deposits - an interesting option, especially now that the rates on them have grown, even in the most reliable banks. The problem is that the maximum rates are now offered in relation to the ruble deposits, and the prospects of the ruble today is not very clear, much will depend on the situation in Europe and the US, the price of oil. So I would recommend to take advantage of attractive interest rates on ruble deposits, but in rubles to keep 30-40% of the money, not more, and to open deposits for 2-3 years in order to maximize the rate, but with the possibility of a partial withdrawal, to be able to quickly withdraw money from deposit and move them into other assets. More interesting to me to be dollar-denominated deposits, and here's why. Bids on them also rose slightly, but the whole interest is now also in the cheapness of the dollar against the ruble. Therefore, it seems to me an interesting exchange rubles for dollars in order to place a dollar for dollar contributions for up to 2-3 years, once again, with the possibility of a partial withdrawal.

Real estate - it is a long-term asset, but in the long term of 2-3 years of investment it can also be considered. It may come through investment funds REIT, any investment in real properties with a guaranteed repurchase 3 years. Both variants entering the property - foreign, mainly in Germany and the UK.

So, let's sum up. Where it is possible to invest for a period of 2-3 years?

  • The deposits in rubles and dollars (not more 30-40% in rubles) for up to 2-3 years. Deposits must be a possibility of a partial withdrawal.
  • In the corporate bonds of US companies. Bonds should choose the largest companies that Bole or less regularly pay dividends.
  • The gold - but not now, and waiting for a slight reduction in the price of gold. You can go through structured notes with 100% capital protection, coins, metallscheta.
  • The property - in real estate funds abroad, as well as through investments in real objects with a guaranteed redemption after 3 years. Possible options for countries   -Germany, UK.
  • But in general, the investment for a period of 2-3 years should pass on the slogan maximum flexibility, diversification and liquidity, so your portfolio should consist of at least 2-3 of the above assets.

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